4/22s S&P 2092, Oil 43.54, Gold 1234, Vix 14.05, T-10 1.866%
4/25s – 2087, 42.88, 1239, 14.22, 1.907%, 17.06
“The only thing on God’s Green Earth that matters this week is the 2 hours of trading, starting at 2pm on Wednesday” A Farley. Old school post of last week SPX looks like this: 2081/2111/2074/2092. David Larew
6 am – 2086, 42.95, 1236, 1.90%, 17.02 Mr Grey dry, Eu slight green IG Indices
11:15 – 2088, 43.58, 1242, 14.22, 1.931%, 17.05 GL COT
1:15 – 2088, 43.97, 1242, 14.10, 1.934%, 17.14 XOM loses AAA company’s debt level had more than doubled in recent years, reflecting high capital spending and dividends as well as share repurchases that substantially exceeded internal cash flow
2:35 – 2089, 43.95, 1244, 14.06, 1.934%, 17.10 22:9 17:10 Sprott on PM
S – 2091, 44.04, 1243, 14.15, 1.938%,17.12 23:7, 17:10 yield moving lower left to upper right
finger in the air… XLU sctr plunging.
Avi’s LT Count – This week I want to take note of the bigger perspective in the market. As we began our final move up to complete wave iii, I warned all those willing to listen that the final 4’s and 5’s, which can still take us up to 2134 SPX, will provide much whipsaw to the market, only to see us drop back down to the 2000 region or a bit lower after we complete wave v. This means this market has turned from a grind-up rally into a trader’s market, and with a lot more risk… Ultimately, even in the best-case scenario in the bullish perspective, which will ultimately take us to 2500 in 2017 in our opinion, we will likely be stuck in this current region for the next several months as we complete waves iv and v of wave (1) and then drop into wave (2), as outlined on the 60-minute chart linked below. In the worst-case scenario, this was a corrective rally which will take us back down to the February lows, and, potentially, even much lower in 2016, being signaled by a sustained break of 1995 SPX. So, for most investors, the sidelines are advisable right now. But should the bullish pattern confirm in the summer, we will have a signal that we are on our way to 2500-2600 going into 2017. Avi MW 4.11.16 …As we came into this week, our preference was for the market to provide us with a wave iv pullback back down to at least the 2040SPX region. At this point, I still maintain that expectation. And, if we see a strong follow through to the downside tomorrow, it is likely that wave iv will complete this week, and we can still get that wave v to our upper target box in early to mid-May. 4.26.16 The one change I want to point out this week is to my long-term count. With the structure we have now developed off the February low, we have the potential to consider this rally as the completion of wave v in primary wave 3, possibly even in truncated fashion. While this is clearly only an alternative to me, since 5th waves in third waves often see strong extensions, due to the sizeable wave iii of primary wave 3, I have to now consider this my “alternative” count, with primary 4 taking us into early 2017 before it completes back into the 1700s, with the .382 retracement of wave 3 at the 1695SPX region. Avi MW 4.18.16
bears have lost control; bulls have the ball…
Fib levels for the higher high at 1287.80, the new .618 is 1195; looking for W2 to retrace at least to the .618. If this is a bullish setup, W2 should be a three wave retracement and W3 should make a higher high; we should then move higher impulsively. Signal: 1x sell in place – PMO.
Central Fund of Canada – physical gold & silver – 4.9% discount to NAV
Sprott physical silver -0.79% discount to NAV
SPY hourly (credit Joanne Klein)
SPX Stormm Indicators (credit Greg Polites)
JPY daily (credit Tony Caldaro)
Baker Hughes Rig Count U.S. -9 to 431 rigs Canada unch 40 rigs
Bradley Siderograph 2016 turn dates May 25 Long Term Turn 100% power
The Count according to Tony Caldaro. During the entire 20th century there were only two Cycle wave bear markets: 1937-1942 and 1973-1974. Those two bear markets created the largest market losses of the entire 1932-2007 Super cycle period: 52% and 47% respectively. This is the main reason we are expecting this bear market to produce a 45% to 50% market loss. The wave structure of the bull market, and a 61.8% retracement of the bull market also support this scenario…After the bull market ended in December, on a failed fifth wave, the SPX entered a two month Major wave A downtrend which bottomed in mid-February at 1810…The long term count remains unchanged. The Cycle wave [1] bull market ended in December 2015, and a Cycle wave [2] bear market is currently underway. Major wave A ended at SPX 1810, Major wave B should be near completion, and a Major wave C downtrend should follow shortly to new bear market lows. This will only complete Primary A of the three primary wave bear market. We are still expecting a bear market low some time in the year 2017 around SPX 1100…We continue to label this uptrend as three Intermediate waves. Int. A at SPX 2009, Int. B at SPX 1969, and Int. C at SPX 2111. We have counted Int. A as five overlapping waves: 1947-1891-1963-1932-2009. And Int. C as five overlapping waves: 2057-2022-2075-2034-2111. This pattern is currently suggesting an eleven wave complex zigzag. If the market has topped, a completed Major wave B would be in place. If it pulls back further and then rallies to higher highs, then it could start looking like an impulse wave. Either way, when this uptrend does conclude we will have a much better idea what this uptrend implies longer term. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. (4.23.16)
Traders corner :
3 bar reversal candlestick pattern – “At a trading top, it will look like this: Bar #1 is an up bar. Bar #2 is a down bar, and the high of Bar #2 is higher than the close of Bar #1. Bar #3 is a down bar, and the close of Bar #3 is lower than the open of Bar #1. The inverse occurs at trading bottoms. These can also occur in the middle of a trending move, after a counter trend wave is complete, and when that happens, it’s signaling the continuation of the current trend. This pattern occurs on all time frames, but I have found that the hourly gives the best risk/reward setup. At a trading top, the trading strategy is to go short at the close of Bar #3, and place a stop one tick above the high of Bar #2.” AAH Michael
Larry Conner’s trading model – P> 200 DMA, buy close when RSI(2) <5, sell P> 5 DMA.
EMA cross – “Take a position when the 13/34 EMA crosses on the 15, then another on the 1 hour, finally, fully positioned on the 2 hour. When in doubt, I wait for the daily. Create a disciplined system and stick with it, adjusting as needed along the way.” B Seagle
Coppock Curve – designed by the late E.S. Coppock, to identify major lows. The signal he developed was to wait for the indicator to fall below zero and then turn up; other than that, he concluded that the indicator was of little use. M Pring
“It is a cardinal principal of stock manipulation to put up a stock in order to sell it.” JL
Mr. Grey testing 17 Silverseek
Go Fish
“See both sides, opportunity is more easily made up than losses” T Harrison
All content for education, not trading advice; do your own due diligence. FD – may have positions in securities mentioned.
Value Trap or Tactical 