2016 SPX Annual – 2038/2277/1810/2238
Jan SPX Monthly 2251/2300/2245/2278
Feb SPX Monthly 2285/2371/2271/2363
Mar SPX Monthly 2380/2400/2322/2362
Apr SPX Monthly 2362/2398/2328/2384
May SPX Monthly 2388/2418/2356/2411
June SPX Monthly 2415/2453/2405/2419 Q3 141/143/136/137
July SPX Monthly 2431/2481/2407/2470 Q3 138/145/135/143
Aug SPX Monthly 2477/2490/2418/2471 Q3 143/146/140/146
Sept SPX Monthly 2474/2480/2448/2461 Q3 146/146/143/144
9/8s – 2461, 47.59, 1351, 18.08, 12.53, 91.30, 2.058%
Field Trial 1 Protocol:
“Remember the Assumptions” G Comstock
Elliott Wave Theory Ho: $GL w1 of W3; Alt: B or 4 Categories: economic cycles, market theory, tba. Status: field trial 1, period mark 9.5.17+, duration/pend; baseline survey/pend.
Gann Theory Ho: Time/Price harmonics high s/p US Total Solar Eclipse Theory marks: 2434 aligns; 180 opp: 3/2/2009 lo, 3/1/02 high (1174), SPX 2400 3/1/17; 90 Sq: Dec 5 & 12/15 GL lo (1045). “Socrates” calling for war cycle Sept 11, s/p Harvey Aug 25 (cycle?) Gann 34, 1983, 3301; mark/9.3.17 -18:13. Categories: economic cycles, market theory, tba. Status: field trial 1, period mark 9.5.17+, duration/pend; baseline survey/pend.
Welcome to the Wild West of Financial Services. There is a whole universe of information, FinTwit subcategory not unusual, but important by nature of where it sits and operates. Data collection FinTwit side – category would be nice; therefore WP base reporting; TWTR under review. Compliance issues satisfied by pre-release of field trial notification in WP/TWTR. Data collection/survey quite interesting result on Beta 1st, 2nd no response. Tried reaching out to respected source, nr. Repost survey under diff thread, nr. Old school door to door? Not really the demo on FinTwit. Some guys have kk’s follow. The one’s I have followed represent imo the strongest thinking I have seen in the field. 1st impression no apparent need for additional regulation. Surprising amount of “free” info, ideas, trades floating around; many selling guidance. Really was using twtr as a limited scan data input and wasn’t looking from a compliance perspective. Categories: Health Policy (HP_sub_l,m)
HP Medical Marijuana: tracer study. Categories: HP (sub_l,m)
Journal of FinTwit: establish and publish quarterly journal; model – Journal of Health Policy, but online edition. Category: JFT
Interesting how the conclusion of most research is that we need more research…
Field Trials (aka clinical trials): The similarity with military procedure is striking, Col. Jeff Cooper . Basics include observation and data collection American Journal of Epidemiology . Trials are designed among other things, to facilitate measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of current and proposed theraputics and if necessary propose regulation on inefficient markets. More broadly drafted rules allow for administrative interpretation. Any proposed regulation should take into consideration that Investors & Traders represent different time frames. Valuations control long term returns, while risk control governs short term. Trading is like driving along a misty mountain road, trying to see the next turn SJ Gardner.
What can we measure? From a interpretation perspective the fewer key data points the better. FinTwit yodas – baseline standard. Registration standard.
Study adjustment: FinTwit yodas – baseline standard. Sample size increase include: me following (N=33) + following me (N=29, adj Toddx2?). This sample is specific to the preliminary FinTwit review. Still having trouble with the baseline survey on this end. Have a thought and alt is on the other side of the house someone has got to be live measuring this social mood stuff. Study data collection record marks 8, 10, 1, S. Variables include: S&P 500, Oil, Gold, Silver, Vix, $US, T10. Note each yoda has +2, allowing sample size to grow. Objectives – tba
FinTwit regulation – review existing regs specific to FinTwit, standard compliance review of test sample / preliminary sort by registered/unregistered.
Compliance: Mark is in 2nd chair
Disclosure: welcome to the circus and I’m still working on the sugar cookie
8 – ES 2459, 48.92, 1358, 18.26, 12.14, 91.06, 2.033%
10 – ES 2461, 48.97, 1351, 18.14, 12.25, 91.31, 2.064%
1 – ES 2464, 48.08, 1352, 18.11, 12.27, 91.31, 2.064%
S – ES 2461, 47.59, 1351, 18.08, 12.53, 91.30, 2.058%
Gold breakout top x3; resistance becomes support. I have been counting this as a 1,2 1,2 with 3 on deck from a macro view. Counts cleaner on the weekly. Has to break R1 and stick it to R2 to confirm. W1 and W2 appear equal time wise, and the pattern strikes the expected retracement (.318). What seemed a drawn out 1,2 pattern may be designed to throw us off. Note stoch embedded, overbought is good. Robert Cote Ed Hunt
50/200 SMA cross: Buy when the seven-month seasonal pattern is bullish and the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA. Sell when the seven-month seasonal pattern is bearish and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA.
3 bar reversal candlestick pattern: “At a trading top, it will look like this: Bar #1 is an up bar. Bar #2 is a down bar, and the high of Bar #2 is higher than the close of Bar #1. Bar #3 is a down bar, and the close of Bar #3 is lower than the open of Bar #1. The inverse occurs at trading bottoms. These can also occur in the middle of a trending move, after a counter trend wave is complete, and when that happens, it’s signaling the continuation of the current trend. This pattern occurs on all time frames, but I have found that the hourly gives the best risk/reward setup. At a trading top, the trading strategy is to go short at the close of Bar #3, and place a stop one tick above the high of Bar #2.” AAH Michael (note: Coops +1 -2 buy signal, same structure, different resolution)
EMA cross: “Take a position when the 13/34 EMA crosses on the 15, then another on the 1 hour, finally, fully positioned on the 2 hour. When in doubt, I wait for the daily. Create a disciplined system and stick with it, adjusting as needed along the way.” B Seagle
Rules based system: “With a rules based system, you don’t have to know what the market will do, or any stock will do, know what you will do under any outcome…Consistently following price and technical levels with a disciplined, objective process will generate more profits than prediction ever will…I put it all out there. Some trades work, some don’t. Nothing wrong with being wrong, I just don’t stay wrong for long…Most Traders/Investors with very strong opinions, biases or convictions, have a very difficult time accepting when a trade runs them over.” LMT978
Trader Joe X Wave:
TJ Diagonals: If you see a little “Contracting Leading Diagonal” at the beginning of the wave? That tells you “something very powerful is ahead”. But if you don’t care to learn the five simple patterns, you will never discover the power of the wave following. Diagonals happen because the market is “winding up for the pitch”. It has to “gather energy” to pop! And we all know what follows that wave!
Momentum Investing – price above 250 MA, Relative Strength above 90, Slow Stochastic rising from below 20 to above (money wave). Joanne Kline
Larry Conner’s trading model: P> 200 DMA, buy close when RSI(2) <5, sell P> 5 DMA.
Gary Smith 1-2-3-4 set up: new high consolidate for three days, buy day four over day three high.
Coppock Curve – designed by the late E.S. Coppock, to identify major lows. The signal he developed was to wait for the indicator to fall below zero and then turn up; other than that, he concluded that the indicator was of little use. M Pring
“It is a cardinal principal of stock manipulation to put up a stock in order to sell it.” JL
“The key to speculation is observation to determine how a market reacts to a possible time/price harmonic” Jeff Cooper Sq Time & Price
“See both sides, opportunity is more easily made up than losses” Todd Harrison
All content for education, not trading advice; do your own due diligence. FD – may have positions in securities mentioned. Blog intended as guide for my boys.